Mith huge, elaborately built exhibition stands, games manufacturers attract tens of thousands of customers to the gamescom computer games fair in Cologne every year. But anyone looking for a booth of the super hit Fortnite there this year did so in vain. The maker of the baller game, Epic Games, disappointed its fans and only had a small booth for upcoming projects instead of the big arcade.

The appearance fits the sales trend: in 2018, the Fortnite boom reached its peak, #EpicGames was able to record monthly revenues of over $300 million from the game. But in the current year, Fortnite sales are falling significantly. According to analysts at SuperData, Fortnite is now barely making the $200 million threshold.

This means that the blockbuster is still more profitable than any other game before it; Epic Games has earned over four billion dollars with it so far and should pack at least another good billion on top. However, according to SuperData, competitors such as League of Legends and Call of Duty on PC and console were financially more successful in July 2019.

“Trends like Fortnite are created in the schoolyard,” explained digital trend researcher Patricia Cammarata in an interview with WELT AM SONNTAG at Gamescom. “They have a lifespan of about two to three years in the target group of teenage users.” According to the report, young people are looking for a common identity-forming theme.

Those who can have a say belong – and in return they have to bring insider knowledge that young people can use to set themselves apart. “In Fortnite, these were the dances with which the characters in the game can celebrate successful actions,” says Cammarata. When Bundesliga players first showed Fortnite dances as goal celebrations in 2018, TV commentators from the older generation were clearly confused.

But in the meantime, the former insider knowledge has become more widespread. This means that young people are losing the opportunity to differentiate themselves through their gaming experience – a new trend is needed. “A successful successor has to bring a way to transfer a game element from the digital to the analog,” Cammarata explains.

The recipe for success also includes the “Battle Royale” game mode. The duel between initially a hundred players on an ever-shrinking field is part of many new products in 2019 that want to emulate the Fortnite success. Even older titles like “World of Tanks” are retrofitted with it. The option of letting players creatively build something themselves is also popular.

Another element that superhits must bring to the table is parent compatibility: in Fortnite, players can play a round with a time budget of just 15 minutes. Other titles require attention for hours – a time span that many parents would never allow their children to play computer games.

The current SuperData hit list is topped by two games that meet this criterion: “Dungeon Fighter Online” and “League of Legends.” However, both have been on the market longer than Fortnite. “A true successor,” says Cammarata, “is not yet in sight.”