The mobile game Diablo Immortal (iOS, Android, beta version PC) is a financial success for Blizzard after 2 weeks. This means that the gaming developer has fulfilled a long-cherished plan in the 2022 summer slump of all places: It has successfully brought a major core game to mobile. In South Korea, studios like NCSoft already succeeded 5 years ago, in 2017. We ask: What impact could the success of Diablo Immortal have on Blizzard and Diablo 4? MeinMMO author Schuhmann gives his assessment.
Is Diablo Immortal a success, then? We can assume that at the moment:
- According to data from the site AppMagic, the game has already turned over 24 million US dollars on iOS and Android in the first 2 weeks – with the game being particularly successful in the USA, South Korea and also in Germany
- However, it is important to note that the actual revenues are significantly higher, as Diablo is an established and successful PC market and PC revenues are not even included in App Magic’s figures.
- In addition, the market in China is expected to be as strong as in the currently dominant US market (44% of revenue). So Diablo Immortal sales could increase by another 50% on mobile alone once the China release is done. The China release was postponed at the last moment due to problems
However, it is not yet clear if Diablo Immortal will be a flash in the pan and fade away or if it will establish itself as a lasting success for Blizzard. However, the fact that Diablo Immortal makes money consistently with aggressive monetization, and not just on the actual sale of the game, makes it safe to assume that it will be profitable.
In the end, we can already say that Diablo Immortal is a success for Blizzard because they have achieved the goal of successfully launching a “core brand” of Blizzard in the West on mobile and monetizing it via a “gacha system” that is otherwise only known from Asian mobile games.
We show you the 6 classes of Diablo Immortal – in our tier list for Diablo Immortal you can see who is currently ahead:
In the summer hole 2022 Activision Blizzard finally implements its 5-year plan
Was this really a goal of Blizzard? It has been Activision Blizzard’s stated goal to strengthen and expand its own core gaming brands and bring them to new platforms, especially mobile. In every financial report in recent years, you can read that Activision Blizzard wants to expand its core brands:
Call of Duty, a shooter that came out once a year, became:
- A main game “Call of Duty”, which continues to appear once a year.
- A mobile game “Call of Duty Mobile” to be played on the go and to pick up a new target audience
- A Free2Play game “Call of Duty: Warzone” that stays relevant throughout the year and also appeals to fans of “live service games” who have acquired a taste for Fortnite, for example
Diablo 3 is expected to become something similar in the future:
- The main game “Diablo 4”, which will be further developed over the years.
- the mobile/free2play variant “Diablo Immortal”, which is fully monetized via the cash store
- the Classic variant “Diablo 2 Resurrected” for nostalgics
These plans and an increased focus on mobile can be seen for more than 5 years at Blizzard and are openly communicated to shareholders:
Activision Blizzard wants to make Diablo and Warcraft more like Call of Duty
Mobile like in South Korea as a way out of the crisis
Where did Blizzard get the idea? They looked to South Korea: In recent years, among the world’s already established gaming markets, the mobile gaming market in South Korea in particular has grown rapidly. In 2018, mobile gaming revenue increased by 21.1%, becoming the “fastest growing market in the world.”
The development of the largest MMORPG companies in South Korea (NCSOft) and in the U.S. (Blizzard) ran relatively parallel until 5 years ago, in 2017.
Blizzard:
- had great success as a PC brand for years and even conquered China with its games.
- but suddenly had a hard time with “new games” from the mid-2010s: WoW successor Titan was canceled, the MOBA Heroes of the Storm proved to be a flop despite all efforts, the success of Overwatch lasted only 2 years, then Fortnite came and undermined the hype.
- noticed that WoW was suddenly getting on in years. Diablo 3 was not developed further, Starcraft was dropped as a brand: The glory was in danger of fading.
Things haven’t been going so well for Blizzard for a few years now.
NCSoft in South Korea:
- had great success over the years with PC MMORPGs like Lineage, Lineage 2, Blade and Soul, and Aion. With Guild Wars 2, they even had a foot in the West.
- suddenly found itself struggling in the mid-2010s: WildStar was a flop in Europe, the existing PC MMORPGs were slowly running out of steam, and the new game “Master X Master” was a total flop. New games were hardly developed anymore:
- suddenly made no new games. Project TL, which was supposed to be the new MMORPG flagship as “Lineage 3”, was stuck in development hell. A worldwide release planned for 2017 was canceled.
NCSoft’s remaining PC hopeful for MMORPG fans:
NCSoft reorganizes overnight with mobile titles – Blizzzard slides into crisis
What has happened since then? In the 5 years since 2017, the development curve of NCSoft and Blizzard has drifted enormously apart:
Blizzard has developed virtually no new games, only brought “nostalgia titles” like WoW Classic, is also mired in sexism scandals and has lost many core developers. In terms of relevance, it has been overtaken by up-and-coming studios like Epic Games or Riot Games. Blizzard had to cut jobs and close branches. In the end, they accepted a takeover offer from Microsoft, so they want to sell Activision Blizzard.
NCSoft in South Korea, however, has managed to keep writing new sales records: However, they have managed this not through innovative ideas, but by copying innovative competitors. Following the example of its competitor Netmarble, NCSOft has relaunched its existing PC games as mobile titles, thus rehabilitating itself overnight.
It seems clear that Blizzard’s business plan is to follow suit with NCSoft and likewise transition core brands like WoW and Diablo into mobile titles. This is happening now in 2022 with Diablo Immortal and Arclight Rumble.
Diablo 4: PC gaming and console ports could become less important for Blizzard
What are the implications for PC gaming? If we look at how NCSoft has fared over the last 5 years, we see:
- A clear move away from PC games – there have been far fewer new titles released, for one thing, but also the content delivery of the new titles is not as central as it once was. Lineage, Blade & Soul or Aion now serve more as “brand suppliers” for new mobile titles. Games like Blade & Soul 2 or Aion 2 are being developed, but they are no longer coming to the PC, but are purely mobile titles.
- A down-prioritization of PC titles that were in development: The “difficult” Lineage Eternal has now been in development for 12 years and is apparently in no hurry to appear, even though it is announced for 2022 as Throne and Liberty.
- A down-prioritization of console ports: for years, a central plan for NCSoft was to take its existing PC brands “abroad” and transfer them “to console” in order to attract new buyer bases. That effort has recognizably not been that priority since the big turnaround in 2017. The plans were ultimately not implemented in a big way: Blade & Soul has not been released on consoles to this day.
What impact will this have on Diablo 4? It’s probably safe to assume that Diablo Immortal won’t have a direct impact on Diablo 4.
It is hardly to be feared that Blizzard will now start there with exaggerated microtransactions. The game has been in development for too long for that, and there are already statements about it.
Moreover, Blizzard knows about its fans and their preferences on the PC market.
Blizzard employees emphasize: Diablo 4 will not be monetized the way Immortal was
But one has to worry that the success of Diablo Immortal will affect the internal prioritization of Diablo 4. Diablo 4 could perhaps receive fewer expansions, fewer resources, or less attention than if Diablo Immortal had not been a success.
Blizzard will not be in a hurry with a Diablo 4 release now. Also, whether there will be a Diablo 5 after a successful Diablo 4 seems uncertain.
However, there is also good news. From Korea we see that the path of “maximum money greed” doesn’t work. Because NCSoft got intoxicated by the success of its mobile titles in between and took it too far with the monetarisiung 2021. They promptly got the receipt for that:
Money greed drives one of the world’s largest MMORPG studios into crisis
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