What’s going on at Activision? Activision and Blizzard have been doing business together under the umbrella of “Activision-Blizzard” for over 14 years. The group is currently in the middle of a takeover by Microsoft.

Now one of the last quarterly reports as an independent company has been published and it shows: “Call of Duty” publisher Activision has gotten a bit under the wheels (via businesswire.com)

For the first time since 2019, Activision falls below the 100 million player threshold (MAUs – Monthly Active Users) in Q2 2022. They’ve even lost 40% of their monthly active players since the peak in Q1 2021.

What are MAUs? These are the monthly active users logging into an Activision game. It is an average of several months. In Activision’s count, users count multiple times if they log into the same account on different platforms. At Blizzard, such users only count once.

Since Activision basically consists entirely of Call of Duty and otherwise has rather small titles in its portfolio, this also means a sharp drop in the numbers for CoD.

To combat the trend, they’re looking to old successes – and relying on the same plan that created a lot of hype in 2019/2020. MeinMMO explains the strategy for success.

CoD repeats history

What was the 2019 plan? Interest in Call of Duty was lower in 2019 than it has been in a long time. Black Ops 4, the CoD of 2018, did not achieve the desired success and MAUs dropped to 36 million.

CoD was considered a problem franchise at the time. Hardly anyone at the time had any idea what was to come after that. Because CoD had three smash hits planned, all of which were to hit:

Activision’s player numbers went through the roof. In Q4 2019, they suddenly reached 128 million MAUs. This value was then topped only in Q1 2021 – the preliminary peak was reached with 150 million MAUs.

Why are things not going so well at the moment? Things have been going downhill since the record level. Even today, we are still feeding off the 2019/2020 run, but were unable to maintain the very high level. The latest report shows 94 million MAUs, a good 40% less than 1.5 years ago.

This is due to some issues in the current games that are now depressing player numbers:

• Call of Duty: Vanguard – The premium title from 2021 was not well received. The interest in the World War 2 setting was misjudged, and there were also too few innovations.
• Call of Duty: Warzone – The battle royale was only planned for one year. It was not expected to be a big success and this mistake is still being worked on today.
• Call of Duty: Mobile – Delivers stable numbers, but can’t make up for the shortfalls of the other divisions. Should be able to do more in a growth market like mobile gaming.

As the big three products in the portfolio weaken, player numbers are also suffering. But it is still a long way from being able to speak of a crisis at Call of Duty.

Compared to the period before the big plan 2019, you still have three times as many players – 94 million. The current report also provides a good comparison value right away: the Blizzard division, with big titles like Warcraft, Diablo and Overwatch, comes to 27 million MAUs in Q2 2022.

What is the 2022 plan? Now you want to repeat the success story that led to a fat boom in 2019. Unlike 2019, however, you’re not just sitting on a flagging premium title that finances itself via DLCs and loot boxes.

You’ve matured into a service game machine over the past few years, hired massive amounts of new people, and are looking to initiate the next hype with the same plan as 2019:

• Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 – The next premium title is scheduled for release on October 28 and is the direct sequel to the most successful premium CoD to date (CoD MW 2019).
• Call of Duty: Warzone 2.0 – The sequel to the free-to-play Battle Royale doesn’t have a name yet, but it’s scheduled for release later this year.
• Call of Duty: Mobile-Warzone – The battle royale is coming to smartphones as a standalone title. There is no release date yet.

Like 2019, they have a premium CoD with “Modern Warfare” in the title, a new Warzone game, and a mobile spin-off in the pipeline.

Can the plan work? The Call of Duty brand continues to have a lot of appeal and potential. At the moment, it’s more likely than not that CoD will succeed with its plans. However, there are certain risks.

CoD MW2 and Warzone 2.0 share the technical foundation. If there are problems with the release of CoD MW2, Warzone will also suffer or the release will be postponed.

Warzone 2.0 is also under immense pressure. It “must” be better than Warzone 1, because there will be critical comparisons from day one.

CoD MW2 and Warzone 2.0 both have a good chance of hype, the starting point is good, people are eagerly waiting for both titles. On PC and console, the quality of the delivered products matters more than ever.

In the mobile market, Warzone Mobile is expected to bring new momentum and players. There is also an extreme amount of potential for new players here, especially in markets where gamers tend to use their smartphones for gaming and expensive computers and consoles are rarer.

Whether the recipe for success in 2019 will work will soon become clear. In any case, the facts show that Call of Duty is following a strict plan – even if the current weakness in player numbers is due to home-made problems.

If Activision and Call of Duty use the experience of the last few years, then the next record numbers are probably on the cards in 2023: If everything goes smoothly.

Leave us your opinion on the topic – how do you assess the situation of Call of Duty? Write us a comment.

If you’d rather read about what Sony has to say on the subject, check here: PS5: Sony comments on Microsoft’s purchase of Activision Blizzard – “Call of Duty has no competition, never will have any”